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Weather Reports and Handicapping
How much of an element is weather in handicapping? Even recreational football fans, those who do not gamble, were aware of Brett Favre's remarkable winning streak in sub 34 degree temperatures, or Tampas ineptitude when the kickoff temperature is below 40 on the scale. It is only fair for handicappers to note most of those Favre games were at Green Bay, where his team rarely lost and Tampas incompetence at covering point spreads was compiled when they were a doormat playing on an icy road.
As far as field conditions benefitting one team or the other, the old adage of both squads having to play in the same circumstances remains true. This is not to say that blizzards or downpours will not decide the spread, or straight up, outcome. Many teams are built for their home field and extremes impacting domed stadiums will no longer be a factor. Come playoff time, and even in the late regular season, we will hear savvy pundits and long time handicappers questioning the ability of dome teams to win... or even make it to the Super Bowl. Atlanta making it to the Super Bowl in 1999, and the Rams winning it all in 2000, did take some bluster out of those convinced of a domed field disadvantage. Both teams were able to avoid having to play in nasty outdoor conditions.
We actually agree that domed stadium teams are clearly trained for domed play and are at a disadvantage in ugly outdoor conditions. We do not disagree that the Colts defense needs to be improved, and no one questions the genius of Bill Belichek. But the Colts offense is more high powered than great and, under Andrew Luck's leadership, we must question the Colts ability to beat any team in northern winter climates. The same was true for Minnesota in the Randy Moss era.
The exception to the same conditions rule would be high powered offenses. Philadelphia Eagles linebacker Ike Reese said. "Sloppy rainy games are tailor made for running teams. When you have to put the ball up, you're going to have to worry about sloppy passes, balls getting fumbled." The famed Dolphins of the early 70s, which went to the Super Bowl three straight years, winning two including the perfect season, are a perfect example of a team that could win under any circumstances. In fact un Miami like temperatures fit perfectly into their smash mouth ball control style.
Teams custom built for their stadium, of course, will be most effected by differences that take them out of their comfort zone. But a road teams style is more quantifying than simply handicapping climate changes. The single biggest mistake handicappers make is thinking potential weather advantages benefit mostly warm climate teams playing in northern cities. No less of an authority on the subject would be Dan Marino. He played his high school and college ball in Pittsburgh, and spent a Hall of Fame career in Miami, but logged many road games in New York, Foxborough, Buffalo and other cold-weather cities.
Marino believes it is tougher for a cold accustomed team to play in a hot temperate city, than visa versa. Ask any newly arrived New York transplant, now living in south Florida. You will be told there is an acclimation period adjusting to the much warmer temperature. One must get used to it.
As a matter of fact, it is easier for heavily padded American football players to compensate for cold and ice, than it is for them to prepare for the blistering heat of Florida, Texas or Arizona. Yet the handicapper seems to concern himself more with ice and rain, and the December frozen tundra. Here is one simple fact that could make a difference in winning more football bets... simply turn up the heat.
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